Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS)

Statistical Analysis on Syrian Victims Killed by US-Led Coalition’s Airstrikes and Russia’s Airstrikes During Jan-17 to Sep-17

Statistical Analysis on Syrian Victims Killed by US-Led Coalition’s Airstrikes and Russia’s Airstrikes During Jan-17 to Sep-17

Report Prepared by the Damascus Center for Human Right Studies Documentation Team

 

Introduction and Background

Throughout March 15th, 2011 to September 30, 2017, the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS) documented a provisional total of 151,269 casualties. 79% of those killed were civilians accumulating to 119,434 civilian victims. The remaining 21% belonged to one of the fighting factions. The number of documented children during the indicated period is 16,793 Children victims at a rate of 11% of the total victims. The documented number of women casualties is 11,786 at a rate of 8% of the total victims.

 

In September, 2014, the US-Led Coalition began its airstrikes assaults to eliminate ISIS’s spread in Syria. In addition, the Russian Federation intervened in the Syrian conflict on behalf of the Syrian regime in September, 2015. To this day, both the US-Led Coalition and Russian air force continue their indiscriminate airstrikes across Syria causing collateral damage of civilian casualties as this report indicates.

 

Number of Casualties Killed by US-Led Coalition’s Airstrikes and Russia’s Airstrikes Since They Began Attacks in Syria:

Throughout September, 2014 to September 30, 2017, the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS) documented a provisional total of 2,282 casualties killed by the US-Led Coalition Airstrikes. Additionally, throughout September, 2015 to September 30, 2017, the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS) documented a provisional total of 7,163 casualties killed by Russia’s airstrikes. The following chart indicates the number of victims killed by US-Led Coalition strikes and Russia’s strikes per month:

 

Number of Casualties Killed by US-Led Coalition’s Airstrikes and Russia’s Airstrikes Per Month During January, 2017 to the End of September, 2017:

Throughout January 01, 2017 to September 30, 2017, the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS) documented a provisional total of 1,481 casualties killed by the US-Led Coalition Airstrikes. Additionally, throughout January 01, 2017 to September 30, 2017, the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS) documented a provisional total of 904 casualties killed by Russia’s airstrikes. The following chart/table indicates the number of victims killed by US-Led Coalition strikes and Russia’s strikes per month. Correlation analysis of victims killed by US-Led Coalition’s strikes, and Russia’s strikes per month during January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017 using the correlation coefficient formula* for two data sets resulted in r = -1. Subsequently the negative correlation coefficient demonstrates that for each month, if the number of victims killed by the US-Led Coalition strikes for that specific month increased, the number of the victims killed by Russia’s strikes decreased, and the vice versa is correct.

 

Number of Casualties Killed by US-Led Coalition’s Airstrikes and Russia’s Airstrikes Per Province During January, 2017 to the End of September, 2017:

The following chart shows the correlation between the number of victims killed per province by both; the US-Led Coalition airstrikes and Russia’s strikes, during January, 2017 till September, 2017. Using the correlation coefficient formula* for two data sets resulted in r = -0.160557222. Subsequently the negative correlation coefficient demonstrates that for each province, if the number of victims killed by the US-Led Coalition strikes for that specific province increased, the number of the victims killed by Russia’s strikes for that specific province decreased, and the vice versa is correct.

 

 

US-Led Coalition Strikes Casualties’ Analysis for the Period Jan, 2017 to Sep, 2017:

The following chart shows the number of victims killed by US-Led Coalition airstrikes for the period January, 2017 to the end of the September, 2017, totalling to 1,481 victims.

Findings:

The chart presents the following indications:

  • An increase in the number of casualties towards the Beginning of Mar, 2017 and ending in August, 2017.
  • Casualties equal or greater than 100 were recorded in the following months: March 2017, April 2017, and May 2017, June 2017, July 2017, and August, 2017.
  • Casualties equal or greater than 200 were recorded in the following months: May 2017, June 2017, July 2017, August, 2017.

 

 

The below chart / table details the number of casualties killed by US-Led Coalition per Syrian provinces sorted descending. Only 9 provinces recorded casualties and they are: Ar-Raqqa, Der Ezzor, Homs, Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Damascus & Suburbs, Al-Hasaka, and Daraa.

Findings:

The chart presents the following indications:

  • During Jan,17 to Sep, 2017, Ar-Raqqa province recorded the highest number of casualties killed by US-Led Coalition’s airstrikes accumulating to 1101 victims.
  • During the same period, the second province with the highest number of casualties was Der Ezzor with 227 victims.
  • DCHRS is unable to retrieve accurate count on casualties from ISIS combatants, terrorist groups, extremist factions, Syrian regime soldiers, or Assad’s allies, thus most of the documented victims were civilians with ratio of 99%.

 

Russia’s Strikes Casualties’ Analysis for the Period Jan, 2017 to Sep, 2017:

The following chart shows the number of victims killed by Russia’s airstrikes for the period January, 2017 to the end of the September, 2017, totaling to 904 victims.

Findings:

The chart presents the following indications:

  • An increase in the number of casualties towards the beginning of Jan, 2017 and ending in April, 2017. The number raises again during Sep, 2017.
  • Casualties equal or greater than 100 were recorded in the following months: Jan 2017, Feb 2017, March, 2017, April, 2017, and Sep 2017.
  • Casualties equal or greater than 200 were recorded in April, 2017.

 

The below chart details the number of casualties killed by Russia’s airstrikes per Syrian provinces, sorted descending. Only 8 provinces recorded casualties and they are: Idlib, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus & Suburbs, Der Ezzor, Ar-Raqqa, Homs, and Daraa.

Findings:

The chart presents the following indications:

  • During Jan,17 to Sep, 2017, Idlib province recorded the highest number of casualties killed by Russia’s airstrikes accumulating to 250 victims.
  • During the same period, the second province with the highest number of casualties was Hama with 186 victims.
  • DCHRS is unable to retrieve accurate count on casualties from ISIS combatants, terrorist groups, extremist factions, Syrian regime soldiers, or Assad’s allies, thus most of the documented victims were civilians with ratio of 99%.

 

Ratio of Victims Killed Out of Total Number of Casualties During Period Jan, 2017 to Sep, 2017:

Throughout January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017, DCHRS documented a total of 1,481 casualties killed by the US-Led Coalition Airstrikes. In addition, throughout January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017, the DCHRS documented a total of 904 casualties killed by Russia’s airstrikes. The remaining number is 4,705 for victims who were killed by other reasons of death. When dividing the above numbers by the total number of casualties documented during the same period, January, 2017 to the end of September, 2017, a ratio of 21% is victims killed by US-Led Col strikes, and a ratio of 13% is victims killed by Russia’s strikes. Whilst the 66% is casualties killed by different means or reasons of death. Therefore, from every 100 persons killed in Syria, 21 are killed by US-Led Coalition’s strikes, and 13 by Russia’s airstrikes.

 

Based on the above statistics and charts, the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS) calls the international community to terminate the indiscriminate aggression of aerial aviation, which is designed specifically to target civilians deliberately. DCHRS condemns the constant aerial bombardment of the regime air forces, Russian air forces, and the US-Led Coalition’s forces for perpetrating crimes against humanity and war crimes against the Syrian civilians. DCHRS calls upon the US-Led Coalition Forces and the Russian Federation to target and aim precisely due to the loss of large number of civilians, who were killed as collateral damage. DCHRS commends any efforts or initiatives to establish a safe zone in Syria, which shall save many lives of civilians. Furthermore, Also, DCHRS denounces the continues failure of the UN Security Council to achieve mechanisms to end violence in Syria, and to account crime perpetrators to justice. Additionally, DCHRS urges the UN and the international community to implement the ceasefire agreement, the de-escalation zones agreement, and to create a no-fly zone that could prevent the deaths of many children, women, and civilians.

 

DCHRS, inspired by its main mission in documenting and monitoring human rights violation in Syria and as a member of the International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect (ICRtoP), urges all the concerned organization to work on, referring the cases of these massacres, and the many other massacres perpetrated by the Syrian regime, to the I.C.C. and the specialized courts, holding the individuals responsible for these crimes accountable.

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DCHRS_Stats_US-led-Col_and_Russia_Jan17_Sep17_En

 

Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies (DCHRS)

October, 6, 2017

 

For more information, please contact
Dr. Radwan Ziadeh, Executive director of the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies.
Phone (571) 205-3590
Email : radwan.ziadeh@gmail.com

Mr. Mojahed Ghadban, Communications Officer.
Telephone (479) 799-8115
Email: info@dchrs.org

DCHRS is an independent, non-governmental organization, established in 2005, located in the Syrian capital of Damascus. Its mission is to foster a spirit of support and respect for the values and standards of human rights in Syria. As such, DCHRS recognizes and adheres to all pertinent international human rights agreements and declarations issued by the UN.

  • DCHRS is a member of the following international networks:
  • International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH)
  • Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network (EMHRN)
  • NGO Coalition for the international Criminal Court
  • International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect (ICRtoP)
  • International Coalition of Sites of Conscience

 

DCHRS worked on a variety of documentation projects. Such projects included daily casualty reports, massacre reports, and other human rights violations reports. Also DCHRS has been working on advocacy and lobbying in different human rights institutions in order to educate and acknowledge about the deteriorating human rights situation in Syria. DCHRS opened local offices in Syria in order to document, collect, and observe human rights violations on the ground. After the launch of the Syrian revolution, the center increased its activities through working, communicating, and coordinating with many members and activists. Thus, the center began documenting daily violations committed by the Syrian regime forces that can be classified as crimes against humanities and war crimes. Such violations included: extrajudicial killings, massacres, arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, rape, torture in prisons. DCHRS submitted those reports to many international and regional human rights organizations and communicated with the Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic on Syria.

* (r) =[ nΣxy – (Σx)(Σy) / Sqrt([nΣx2 – (Σx)2][nΣy2 – (Σy)2])]

* (r) =[ nΣxy – (Σx)(Σy) / Sqrt([nΣx2 – (Σx)2][nΣy2 – (Σy)2])]